Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,125$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(256 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,097.1}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,097.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(6.09 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(104.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $398$ on 2020-05-07

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,126$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,320.8}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,320.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,810$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(179 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,806.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,806.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,416$ on 2020-05-07

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $215,858$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211,882.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(211,882.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,958$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,330.8}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,330.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89,624$ on 2020-05-07

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,257,023$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(8.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,306,568.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,306,568.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $75,662$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{78,205.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(78,205.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $986,325$ on 2020-05-07

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $207,977$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,423.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(217,423.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,689$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,077.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(31,077.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $176,318$ on 2020-05-07

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,623$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,196.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,196.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,040$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,197.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,197.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,612$ on 2020-05-07

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $169,430$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163,601.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(163,601.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,392$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(646 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,492.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,492.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,338$ on 2020-05-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Iceland recovered 97%
Luxembourg recovered 91%
Thailand recovered 89%
New Zealand recovered 87%
Korea, South recovered 86%
Australia recovered 85%
Austria recovered 85%
Switzerland recovered 83%
Malta recovered 81%
Germany recovered 72%
Niger recovered 70%
Croatia recovered 68%
Andorra recovered 64%
Djibouti recovered 60%
North Macedonia recovered 59%
Uzbekistan recovered 54%
Tunisia recovered 52%
Denmark recovered 52%
Israel recovered 46%
Costa Rica recovered 44%
Uruguay recovered 43%
Turkey recovered 42%
Slovakia recovered 40%
Malaysia recovered 39%
Czechia recovered 37%
Spain recovered 34%
Cuba recovered 26%
Italy recovered 17%
Japan recovered 16%
Morocco recovered 4%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,975$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,386.5}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,386.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,319.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,319.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $361$ on 2020-05-07

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(376 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.4}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 22.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36$ on 2020-05-07

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,859$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(658 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,708.9}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,708.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $100$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(15.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(96.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $254$ on 2020-05-07

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,992$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(863 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,914.5}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,914.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(21.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 10.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $165$ on 2020-05-07